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۱The Analysis of Uncertainty of Climate Change by Means of SDSM Model Case Study: Kermanshah
نویسنده(ها): ،
اطلاعات انتشار: World Applied Sciences Journal، بيست و سوم،شماره۱۰، ۲۰۱۳، سال
تعداد صفحات: ۷
SDSM downscaling model was used as a tool for downscaling weather data statistically. The prediction of climate change model was carried out according to 3 scenarios, A2, B2 and A1 based on 2 global circulation models, HadCM3 and CGCM1. In order to investigate uncertainty, bootstrap confidence intervals were calculated for estimated means and variances of daily weather parameters in every month. The predictor variables of CGCM1 model did not create an acceptable correlation with precipitation; therefore, precipitation data were downscaled only by HadCM3. The uncertainty of the means and variances in the minimum and maximum daily temperature of CGM1 model were less than HadCM3 and were closer to the observed data. The daily precipitation of the observed data in most months has less uncertainty than HadCM3. The precipitation in HadCM3 will increase 54% in A2 scenario and 51.5% in B2 scenario in 2010–2039 time period. The minimum and maximum daily temperature in all scenarios will increase in 2010–2039 time period.
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