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۱Evaluation of the Change–Factor and LARS–WG Methods of Downscaling for Simulation of Climatic Variables in the Future (Case study: Herat Azam Watershed, Yazd – Iran)
اطلاعات انتشار: ECOPERSIA، سوم،شماره۱، Winter ۲۰۱۵، سال
تعداد صفحات: ۱۴
Prediction of climatic variables on a local scale by General Circulation Models of the atmosphere is impossible because the models have large–scale network of resolution. Therefore, downscaling methods are used to solve this problem. Since the climate change phenomenon can affect different systems such as, water resources, agriculture, environment, industry and economy as well, Selection of the most suitable downscaling method is very important. This study aims to evaluate performance of Change–Factor (CF) and LARS–WG downscaling methods in prediction of future climate variability of the Azam River Watershed, located in Yazd Province, Iran, for the period of 2010–2039. For this purpose, the CGCM3–AR4 model under the A2 emission scenario and also two methods of downscaling including statistical (LARS–WG) and proportional (CF) approaches were applied. The results showed increasing of temperature by both downscaling methods in the Azam River watershed in the future. Average temperature difference obtained from the two methods is about 3 to 4 percent. On the other hand, based on the climate condition, the amount of rainfall varied in the whole watershed, in a way that the future maximum precipitation difference calculated by two downscaling methods is about 30 percent.

۲Evaluating effect of downscaling methods; change–factor and LARS–WG on surface runoff (A case study of Azam–Harat River basin, Iran)
اطلاعات انتشار: Desert، نوزدهم،شماره۲، ۲۰۱۴، سال
تعداد صفحات: ۱۱
This study aims to evaluate effects of two downscaling methods; change–factor and statistical downscaling on the runoff of the Azam–Harat River located at Yazd province (with an arid climate) of Iran, under the A2 emission scenario for the period of 2010–2039. For this purpose, CGCM3–AR4 model; a rainfall–runoff conceptual model, IHACRES; two downscaling models, Change Factor and LARS–WG were applied. Results show 30% difference in runoff simulated by two downscaling methods. Also, according to the fact that Change Factor ignores climate fluctuations over the course of future period relative to base period, simulated runoff from the outputs of this downscaling method does not contain enough confidence and cannot represent the actual runoff of the basin in the future. Despite, fluctuations are modeled in the LARS–WG well. On the other hand, if the estimated runoff increase from the LARS WG is more than the capacity of the Azam–Harat River and Basin, the risk of flood and damage could figure in the future.
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